Beijing’s aggressive response has crystallized the high stakes for US allies and partners in the region. Whatever fears many had about Pelosi’s trip, the dramatic missile launches and live-fire drills have backfired on Beijing, mobilizing an increasingly united chorus of critics. Before the Chinese military began exercises on an unprecedented scale this week, the G7 had warned Beijing “not to unilaterally change the status quo by force”. Speaking alongside Pelosi in Tokyo on Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the exercises were a “serious problem” after five missiles, at least one of which flew over Taipei, landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. “This is yet another example of Xi Jinping effectively helping to create the security environment around China that he says he doesn’t want,” said Chris Johnstone, a former top US National Security Council official now at the CSIS think-tank. Eric Sayers, a security expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said the G7 statement was a testament to the “hard diplomatic work” the Biden administration has done to forge a more unified position with allies on Taiwan. “Beijing would like to sow division and scare countries from commenting on Taiwan. That obviously didn’t happen here.” Johnstone said the Japanese position showed how China had miscalculated. Tokyo was worried about the visit in part because it was trying to restart cooperation with Beijing. While Biden has spoken with his Chinese counterpart five times, Kishida has only had one conversation with Xi — a congratulatory phone call when he became prime minister. Johnston said China’s response to Pelosi’s visit would “reinforce a growing perception in Japan that its security is tied to Taiwan.” Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week drew an angry response from Beijing but helped unite US allies in Asia in opposition © Chiang Ying-ying/AP Australia also took a low-key stance before the visit, but spoke out against China afterwards. “These exercises are disproportionate and destabilizing,” Foreign Minister Penny Wong said after earlier urging all parties to de-escalate. Charles Edel, an Australia specialist at CSIS, said the tensions came at a critical time in Australia, where there is a debate over what role the US ally would play in the event of a war with China over Taiwan. According to a poll by the Lowy Institute, 75 per cent of Australians believe it is somewhat or very likely that China will become a military threat to the country in the next 20 years – an increase of 30 points from 2018. “Australia will now be more willing to align its security policies towards Taiwan more closely with the US and Japan,” Edel said. The only American ally in Asia that was conspicuous in not directly criticizing China was South Korea. President Yoon Suk-yeol was also the only leader who did not meet Pelosi during her five-country Asia tour. Mike Green, head of the Center for US Studies at the University of Sydney, said Yun’s decision not to meet Pelosi and the stance of Southeast Asian countries showed there was some “unease” in the region, but added there was more support. about Pelosi’s trip to Japan than some had suggested. But Green said Biden complicated the situation for allies and partners by saying the Pentagon didn’t think the trip was a good idea, after it was revealed by the Financial Times. “It revealed the kind of hesitancy and division that only encourages Beijing to try to further divide the US government,” Green said. Michèle Flournoy, a former top Pentagon official and managing director of WestExec Advisors, said that while some smaller Asian countries worried they would be caught in the middle, European nations such as the UK and France would “strengthen their resolve”. Underscoring the alarm among the region’s smaller countries, the foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations expressed concern over “international and regional instability” this week in a rare public statement. “We all have skin in this game and . . . We want America and China to get along,” Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on the sidelines of an ASEAN meeting. “This is a dangerous, dangerous time for the whole world.” ‘ Underscoring the danger, Jing Quan, the third-ranking Chinese diplomat in Washington, warned this week that “Taiwan is one of the very few issues that could bring China and the United States into conflict or even war.” Most experts said Beijing dramatically changed the “status quo” on Taiwan this week. But others point out that Washington, Beijing and Taipei have taken steps in recent years that have changed the geopolitical landscape. China has flown an increasing number of warplanes around Taiwan, while Taipei has pressed the US administration and Congress to strengthen its international standing.

While the White House stresses that it has not changed its “one China” policy – under which it recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China, but only recognizes Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China – it has also taken steps , such as the easing of restrictions on officials meeting with their Taiwanese counterparts, which have alarmed Beijing. Biden has also said on three occasions that the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan against an attack by China. “China, America and Taiwan pushed the envelope on the status quo, but then they pretend the situation is still the status quo,” one observer said. One reason some countries are increasingly nervous is that there are no signs that anyone involved is going to reverse course anytime soon. Jack Bianchi, an expert on China’s People’s Liberation Army at think-tank CSBA, said China’s military response was partly due to Pelosi’s visit, but also reflected concern about the one-China policy. “They want to draw a line in the sand so they don’t see the continuation of a trend that is strategically unfavorable to them,” Bianchi said. Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, said US allies were unlikely to back down in response to China’s aggression, but would seek more guidance from Washington as they considered their policy. “They’re going to want to hear from the U.S. what our strategy is going forward to prevent this from getting out of hand,” Glaser said. Additional reporting by Nic Fildes in Sydney and Christian Davies in Seoul Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter