With tensions rising on the eve of Ms. Pelosi’s expected arrival in Taipei, the White House said it was concerned that China might fire missiles into the Taiwan Strait, send warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense zone or conduct large-scale naval or air operations that cross traditional lines. “There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with longstanding U.S. policy into some kind of crisis or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” John F. Kirby, National Security Council spokesman, told reporters. “Meanwhile,” he added, “our actions are non-threatening and do not break new ground. Nothing about this potential visit – potential visit – which by the way has precedent, would change the status quo.” Mr. Kirby did not say whether American intelligence agencies had identified specific signs of Chinese actions, but he was unusually specific in describing the possible responses the United States expected. White House officials have privately expressed concern that a visit by Ms. Pelosi would set off a dangerous cycle of escalation in Asia at a time when Washington is already consumed with helping Ukraine deal with Russian aggression. In fact, he referred to the Taiwan friction moments after the White House announced another $550 million in weapons to be sent to Ukraine, bringing the total to more than $8 billion since the invasion began in February and underscoring how much of of America’s military industrial capacity has been invested in the war in Europe.
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Ms. Pelosi, a longtime China hawk, has not confirmed plans to visit Taiwan, even when she stopped in Singapore on Monday, but all indications are that she will make an unannounced stop on the self-ruled island. She originally planned to visit Taiwan in April, but canceled that trip after testing positive for the coronavirus. Mr Kirby said US officials did not necessarily expect an attack from China in response, but warned that potential military shows of force could inadvertently trigger a conflict. “It increases the risk of miscalculation, which could lead to unintended consequences,” Mr Kirby said. He seemed particularly keen to send the message to Beijing that it should not regard any visit by Ms Pelosi as a new challenge from the United States, as she would not be the first speaker to go there. Speaker Newt Gingrich stopped by Taiwan in 1997. Mr. Kirby also repeatedly emphasized that the United States still shares the one-China policy of not recognizing Taiwan’s independence. “We’ve been very clear if it goes – if it goes – it’s not without precedent,” he said. “It’s not new. It doesn’t change anything.” Regarding Taiwan, first, the President will make her own decisions on whether or not to visit Taiwan. Congress is an independent, co-equal branch of government. The decision is solely the President’s. What I can say is this: this is largely precedent in the sense that previous speakers have visited Taiwan. Many members of Congress are going to Taiwan, including this year. So if the President decides to visit and China tries to create some kind of crisis or otherwise escalate tensions, that will be all about Beijing. We are looking for them, should he decide to visit, to act responsibly and not engage in any escalation in the future. maybe landing Tue night / Wed local time. There have been some local stories saying it’s coming. Blinken is scheduled to fly to Cambodia Tuesday. morning EST, and that departure was just pushed back more than an hour. I wonder if there is any correlation. He may not want to be on the air if/when Pelosi lands in Taiwan. “We would like to tell the US once again that China stands by and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never stand idly by. China will take decisive responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters. “As for the measures, if he dares to go, then let’s wait and see,” Zhao added.
