Much less vocal, however, was the island at the center of the controversy.
There was no statement for or against Pelosi’s possible trip from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen or her office — although Premier Su Cheng-chang said Wednesday that Taipei was “very grateful to President Pelosi for its strong support and kindness to Taiwan over the years’ and that the island welcomes any friendly visitors from abroad.
Analysts say the relative silence is because Taiwan, a democratic self-governing island of 24 million people that China’s ruling Communist Party claims as part of its territory even though it has never controlled, is in a difficult position.
Taiwan, they point out, depends on American weapons to defend itself against the possibility of China invading and occupying it by force — so it doesn’t want to be seen as discouraging support from one of America’s most powerful politicians.
But if Taiwan appears too enthusiastic about the possibility of Pelosi’s visit, experts say, it risks fueling Beijing’s ire.
On Thursday, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it “has not received any specific information about President Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan” and “had no further comment on this matter.”
A person familiar with Pelosi’s plans said she planned to leave Friday US time for a tour of Asia and that the trip would include stops in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore — but whether she would stop in Taiwan remains uncertain.
‘Background Noise’
Political analysts said part of the reason Taiwanese authorities are keeping a low profile is because doing so could help deflect any blame if such a trip were to take place — Beijing would then be more likely to blame Washington rather than Taipei, they say. “It is in the Taiwanese government’s interest to keep a low profile and avoid giving the impression that Taiwan is actively encouraging Pelosi’s visit,” said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “If Taiwan remains silent and Pelosi comes, it will probably be seen as a decision made by the US or Pelosi,” he said. “But if Taiwan openly invites it to visit, Beijing could label it as a conspiracy by Taiwan. Countries in the region — such as Japan, South Korea or even Australia — may also become less sympathetic to Taiwan if they feel that Taiwan is actively creating an issue out of nowhere.” However, this may only be part of the reason for Taipei’s relative silence. While the international media has extensively covered Pelosi’s potential visit, it only made headlines in Taiwan this week. Instead, Taiwan’s news has mostly focused on scandals surrounding the upcoming local elections and the island’s largest annual military exercises. Wang Ting-yu, a Taiwanese lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said this was partly because the Taiwanese public had grown accustomed to threats from Beijing — which has had designs on the island since the end of the Chinese civil war over from seven decades ago. Brian Hioe, a Taiwanese-American who lives in Taipei and founded New Bloom Magazine, which covers Taiwan politics, said Taiwanese are generally not too worried about the potential impact of Pelosi’s visit, as Beijing has made similar threats in the past. “China’s threats come up with such frequency that it’s kind of like background noise,” he said. “And so people here don’t really think that seriously about the possibility of fallout from a Pelosi visit.”
“China is obliged to react”
At the same time, analysts caution against interpreting Taiwan’s lack of official reaction to mean it is unaware of the potential risks of a Pelosi visit. And as the hype around her potential trip grows, each side will feel it needs to stay put to avoid looking weak, commentators said. The issue was discussed at length in a phone call Thursday between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping — who warned “those who play with fire will perish by it,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. Analysts said that if Pelosi does not come, the US risks being seen as fearful of China’s possible response. Meanwhile, growing speculation about what China might do to respond could drive Beijing into a corner where it felt it had to do something to avoid losing face if a visit were to take place. “Right now, because there have already been so many comments and discussions about how China might react, I think China is bound to react at this point,” Hioe said. “So I think there’s going to be some sort of backlash from China and they’re going to try to make it seem like it’s a lot more important.” Despite these concerns, Rep. Wang said that Taiwan is “no one’s pawn” and that China should not be able to dictate who visits the island. “There is no room for China to interfere in diplomatic interactions between Taiwan and the United States,” said Wang, a member of the parliament’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee. “We welcome all our friends from the United States and from around the world. So whether Pelosi comes or not, we respect their decision. However, don’t let China interfere.” Su Tzu-yun, director of Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research Institute, said the island “welcomes any friends from other countries, and we appreciate any support from the international community.” He said if the situation escalated, it would be Beijing’s responsibility. “Taiwan will never become a so-called freerider (to the US). We will show our willingness to defend ourselves,” he said. Additional reporting by Walid Berrazeg in Taipei.
