Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive to retake Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine. Victory could turn the tide of the war. Defeat could force Ukraine to abandon large swaths of territory. Here’s everything you need to know:
What is the status of the southern Ukraine counteroffensive?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Saturday that a Ukrainian counteroffensive was underway in the Kherson region, aimed at pushing Russian forces out of an area they have controlled for nearly five months. The regional capital Kherson, a river port with a population of around 300,000 before the war, fell to the invaders less than a week after the invasion began. Since then, Kherson has been the site of intense partisan activity, including the distribution of anti-Russian leaflets and repeated bombings of a Russian air base. Zelensky said on Saturday that his country’s forces were advancing “step by step” in the region, after a month of bombing to soften Russian positions. According to regional military governor Dmytro Butrii, since the first weeks of the war, Ukrainian forces have liberated 44 towns and villages along the border of Kherson region. As Ukrainian troops advance into Kherson, they are also working to cut the defenders’ supply lines, hit bridges and Russian ammunition depots. On Tuesday, Ukraine used an American-made HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Missile System) to damage the critical Antonivskiy Bridge — which spans the Dnipro River — so badly that it prevented Russia from moving vehicles across it.
Will Russia fight?
Russia is likely to offer stiff resistance. The US-based Institute for the Study of War cited footage on social media that appeared to show Russian forces setting up fortifications along the P47 highway, which links the city of Kherson with Kahkovka, about 50 miles to the east. These defenses will help Russia hold onto the west bank of the Dnipro – where the city of Kherson is located – and block Ukrainian forces who might attempt to cross the river and encircle the city from the southeast. The story continues Serhiy Khlan, a former assistant to the Ukrainian governor of Kherson Oblast, said earlier this month that Russian forces in the city were “preparing for civil war”. Oleksiy Danilov, a member of Ukraine’s National Security Council, said last week that Russia was conducting “a very strong movement of its troops” to support the southern front. Russian military analyst Vladislav Shurygin told Newsweek that the occupation forces will fight to the last man. “Khersona will be under Russian control. The only question is, will the city remain functional and intact…or will we see something similar to the battle for Mariupol?” he said, referring to Russia’s bloody, months-long siege of the port city in southeastern Ukraine. This attack is considered a great danger for Ukraine. The New York Times reported that the decision to go ahead with the attack “created debate among Western officials and some analysts about whether Ukraine was ready for such a large effort.” The Daily Beast noted that “failure in Kherson would be a devastating loss for Ukraine” and that this “make-or-break attack” could “depend on supplies of Western aid, which Ukrainian officials say cannot be fast enough”.
What about Russia’s plans to annex Kherson?
Ukrainian forces are racing against time. Information suggests that rigged referendums on joining Russia will be held in the occupied territories sometime in September. The occupation forces are already working to impose Russian culture on Kherson, replacing Ukraine’s currency with the ruble, bringing in Russian television and online services, holding a “We are with Russia” forum with local partners at Kherson State University, and raising billboards declaring “We are one people”. Once Russia completes its de jure annexation of its conquered territories, retaking them will become a dangerous endeavor. Russian military doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in defense of the “existence of the state,” even against conventional attacks. Retired Army Colonel Douglas McGregor, a frequent critic of Zelensky and US support for Ukraine, argued in The American Conservative earlier this month that Ukraine cannot hope to regain territory and is likely to lose even more. “The future of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions along with Donbas has been decided. Moscow is also likely to secure Kharkov and Odesa, two cities that are historically Russian and Russian-speaking, as well as the territory adjacent to them,” he wrote. MacGregor predicts that “[t]These operations will prolong the conflict until the summer” and that a negotiated settlement could then be reached.[s] on the Biden program for perpetual conflict with Russia.” If MacGregor is right and Russia captures Odessa, it will almost certainly be able to secure a land bridge linking Russia to Crimea and Crimea to the Russian-held separatist Romanian region of Transnistria, a military a goal that Russia has hinted at many times. Others are more optimistic. “We can say that the Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September and all the plans of the occupiers will fail,” Khlan said. The Ukrainian government has not announced an official timetable for retaking the city.
What is happening on the eastern front?
Ukraine’s defense lines have been solidified since the fall of Severodonetsk and Lysihansk earlier this month, but Russia is still conducting offensive operations against the well-defended cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk, the regional capital. Russian forces have also launched a ground offensive near Izyum and are in a position to threaten Siversk and Slovyansk, although the latter two cities appear to have been de-prioritized. ISW continues to categorize the eastern front as Russia’s “main effort” and suggests that Russia could be “aiming to gain as much ground as possible in Donetsk Oblast before the planned referendums in September.” Even if Russia is unable to make significant territorial gains, it can wreak havoc by shelling towns and villages behind Ukrainian lines. Mounting civilian casualties and the destruction of vital infrastructure needed to generate electricity and heat people’s homes in the coming winter prompted Zelensky to order the mandatory evacuation of parts of Donetsk Oblast on Saturday. The order could displace up to 200,000 people, according to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.
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