While Sadr’s supporters rally against the appointment of a new prime minister, these protests also represent a deep political rift that is festering between Iraq’s rival Shiite blocs and the strong hand that analysts say Iran is playing from afar.
“Iran will be a party to this conflict,” said Ihsan Al-Samari, a politics professor at Baghdad University and head of the Iraqi Center for Political Thought. “And Sadr knows that Iran could be the one pushing the Coordination Framework to try to expand its influence on the political scene in Iraq,” he added.
A Shiite bloc aligned with Iran and opposed to Sadr, the Coordination Group includes politicians with ties to Tehran, including former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. It also includes paramilitary groups that are heavily armed by Iran. The latest unrest follows nine months of political deadlock, infighting and accusations that have prevented the formation of a government after Sadr emerged as the biggest winner in October’s parliamentary elections.
Sadr’s victory threatened to sideline the Iran-aligned Shiite blocs that have dominated Iraqi politics for decades. In what has been described as a “tectonic shift” in Iraqi politics, Sadr in June asked his political bloc to resign from parliament after failing to cooperate with rival blocs. The move demonstrated Sadr’s true power: his ability to mobilize supporters on the streets in large numbers and with great force.
In a potentially escalating move, the Coordinating Framework on Sunday called on protesters to also take to the streets on Monday. “Iraq’s political system is on the brink of irreparable collapse, and the country is headed for a civil war between Sadr and his Iran-aligned opponents,” said Ranj Alaaldin, non-resident fellow in the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, a think tank. in Washington. Speaking at a weekly news conference, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said the situation in Iraq was caused by internal political strife, state news agency IRNA reported on Monday. Kanaani’s comments appeared to dismiss speculation about Tehran’s role in Baghdad’s current crisis.
While some experts say the current political impasse is deeply rooted in the level of influence Iran has over its neighbor, others do not believe Iran is driving the conflict. “I think the motivations for this conflict are mainly internal and not divisions over Iran,” said Mohammad Soumari, president of the Sumeria Foundation in Baghdad.
“There are transformations in Iraqi politics and growing ambitions from different parties that want to consolidate power,” Soumari said, adding that accusations of ties to Iran have become a tool — used mainly by blocs not aligned with Iran — – for defaming their opponents.
While Sadr has long positioned himself against both Iran and the United States, the popular cleric has not always taken a consistent position toward Tehran.
Once on the run from US forces who tried to capture him in Iraq, Sadr is believed to have been hiding in Iran since 2007. He returned to Iraq in 2011 after striking a deal with the Iraqi government in power at the time.
When protesters first stormed parliament on Wednesday, they denounced the appointment of Mohammed Siya al-Sudani as prime minister — a figure nominated by the Coordination Framework and seen by many as an ally of the Iran-aligned Maliki.
But the real problems go far beyond al-Sudani’s appointment, says al-Samari, who added that discontent centers mainly on what he sees as attempts by Iran-aligned Shiite blocs to isolate Sadr and exclude him from The politics.
In a statement on Twitter, Sadr called on politicians to listen to the protesters’ demands, saying there was now a “golden opportunity to end corruption and injustice”.
Sadr warned that if the protesters’ demands are not met, then he is not to blame for the ensuing chaos.
“The current revolution is Sadrist,” he tweeted. “If you miss this opportunity, don’t blame me.”
Despite efforts to defuse tensions, Alaaldin believes it will be difficult to see Sadr step down “unless he is given the government he originally wanted”.
“This remains the biggest political impasse [in Iraq] since 2003,” Al-Shammari said, adding that even if resolved, it is unlikely to be the last crisis the oil-rich country will face.
“The political system is facing great paralysis,” he said, warning that “the moment of conflict would show that this rift has reached unprecedented levels.”

Digestion

The first ship carrying Ukrainian corn bound for Lebanon
The first grain ship to leave the Black Sea port of Odessa since the early days of the war in Ukraine will carry Ukrainian corn to Lebanon, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Monday.

Background: Speaking in an interview with Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency, Akar said the ship, the first to depart under a UN-brokered export deal, will dock off the coast of Istanbul at around 15:00 Istanbul time on Tuesday. The Joint Coordination Center, which oversees the export of Ukrainian grain, will then inspect the ship. It is carrying more than 26,000 metric tons of corn, Akar added. After inspection, it will proceed to its final destination in Tripoli, Lebanon.

Why it matters: Battered by an economic crisis, the deadly explosion in Beirut in 2020 and the burden of the Covid-19 pandemic, Lebanon has this year seen a 46% increase in the number of people in urgent need of support, the UN said. Before the Russian invasion, Lebanon relied on Ukraine for more than half of its wheat imports.

The death toll from floods in Iran is rising At least 69 people have been killed after floods and landslides damaged cities across Iran, Iran’s Red Crescent said in a tweet on Friday.

Background: At least 45 people are still missing in Tehran and three other provinces, according to Nezhad Jahani, deputy head of Iran’s crisis management organization. Jahani also said that around 20,000 houses have been damaged in the recent floods. Iran has been battling heavy rains, deadly floods and mudslides for two weeks. The Red Crescent reported that damage in southern Fars province was caused by flooding from a dam on the Rodbal River near the city of Estahban.

Why it matters: A study of the effects of climate change in Iran found that periods of extreme wetness and drought are becoming more frequent, and that there are more extended periods of extremely hot temperatures and a higher frequency of flooding across the country. In 2019, more than 70 people died in Iran due to floods following record rainfall.

Iran responds to EU proposal to save nuclear deal
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Khani said on Sunday that Tehran had responded to an EU proposal to revive the 2015 nuclear deal amid reports of Iran’s rapid progress on its nuclear program.

Background: Last week, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said he had proposed a new draft text to revive the nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “We shared our proposed ideas, both in substance and in form, to pave the way for the swift conclusion of the Vienna negotiations aimed at correcting the damaging predicament caused by the unilateral and illegal US withdrawal.” , Kanye said on Twitter. The minister did not elaborate on Iran’s proposed ideas.

Why it matters: Iran is currently enriching uranium well above the 3.67% limit set by the nuclear deal. As talks continue to stall, Mohammed Eslami, head of the country’s atomic energy agency, on Monday repeated comments made by the Supreme Leader’s senior adviser Kamal Kharrazi in July, saying: “As Mr. Kharrazi mentioned, Iran has the technical ability to build an atomic bomb, but such a program is not on the agenda.”

CNN is investigating

Thousands of protesters rallied in Sudan’s capital Khartoum on Sunday to demand an end to military rule, after a CNN investigation revealed Russia’s gold looting of the African nation. Clashes erupted after hundreds of protesters tried to head to the Republican Palace — Sudan’s presidential offices — but were met by police, who responded by firing tear gas at the protesters. The protests come after a CNN investigation, based on multiple interviews with high-level Sudanese and American officials and a trove of documents reviewed by CNN, painted a picture of an elaborate, multi-year Russian plan to siphon off Sudan’s wealth in an effort to fortify Russia against the increasingly strong Western sanctions and support Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. Evidence uncovered by CNN also suggests that Russia has colluded with Sudan’s military leadership, allowing billions of dollars in gold to bypass the Sudanese state and depriving the poverty-stricken nation of hundreds of millions in government revenue. The investigation was widely publicized in Sudan and caused a public outcry. Hours after the report aired, posts began circulating on WhatsApp and other social media platforms used by pro-democracy activists. By Nima Elbagir, CNN

What is the trend?

Lebanon: #Beirut_Port
Four days before the second anniversary of the deadly explosion in Beirut on August 4, the city’s port was trending on Lebanese social media for a different reason.
Two wheat silos at the port collapsed on Sunday. The structures, which withstood the effects of the massive explosion in 2020, have been smoldering and burning for weeks, filling parts of the Lebanese capital with the smell of smoke. The flames were caused by the rising temperature in the country. According to state media, the section that collapsed was the most fragile from the blast and was expected to fall. That’s it…