This week Nancy Pelosi became the first Speaker of the US House to travel to the island since Newt Gingrich did so 25 years ago. China issues furious warning to US – follow the latest updates As she met Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei, the senior Democrat claimed the world “is faced with a choice between democracy and autocracy” and pledged continued US support for the self-proclaimed nation against an increasingly hostile stance of Xi Jinping to the West. But despite repeated promises to defend Taiwan if China invades, even President Joe Biden condemned Ms Pelosi’s decision to leave. Why is Taiwan caught in the middle between China and the West? An island of 23 million people 112 miles off the coast of China, Taiwan declares itself an independent, democratic country with its own leader, constitution, political system and military. But with territorial claims to the island dating back to 229 AD, the Communist Party in Beijing sees it as a breakaway province of China that it will eventually bring back under its control – by force if necessary. This is known as the One China principle – a diplomatic acknowledgment that Beijing is the sole legitimate sovereign power in China. Technically, the US subscribes to a version of this – a One China policy – and therefore does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, according to the United Nations. However, he still maintains informal ties and defends the island’s commitment to democracy. This is supported by the US Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which was passed under Jimmy Carter and commits Washington to providing defensive weapons to leaders in Taipei. Professor Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the RUSI think tank, tells Sky News: “China is punishing any country or company that deals with Taiwan or even talks about Taiwan. “It’s their most sensitive issue because the Chinese are crazy about it, it’s like a button you can push to make them angry.” He likens the island to Berlin during the Cold War – a “hot spot of tension in a larger global rivalry” between the two sides. Taiwan is also the world’s largest producer of semiconductors – electrical components found in most smart devices. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes chips for Apple and many other technology companies in the West. There would be serious consequences for global supply chains if China invaded Taiwan, with TSMC chairman Mark Lieu saying factories there would be rendered “inoperable”. As a result, the US House of Representatives just passed the Chip and Science Act to facilitate more semiconductor production on US soil to mitigate the impact of a potential Chinese invasion. What is the story behind the conflict? With its close proximity to the mainland, China’s rule over Taiwan dates back more than 1,000 years. The Qing Dynasty ruled the island between 1683 and 1895, before a brief period of Japanese control as a result of the First Sino-Japanese War. When Japan surrendered, ending World War II in 1945, China reclaimed the territory. Four years later, the Chinese Civil War, which had raged intermittently since 1927, ended and Mao Zedong founded the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Republic of China. This forced the defeated Nationalists – the Kuomintang – to flee to Taiwan. It was they who laid the foundation for a self-determined, democratic Taiwan – separate from China. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 0:44 Chinese ambassador to the UK: “The US is playing with fire” Why are US-China tensions so high? Since Xi Jinping became China’s president in 2012, he has become increasingly determined to achieve so-called “world domination” by a deadline of 2049 – 100 years after the start of Communist Party rule. As a result, the US and other Western nations reacted by hardening their positions towards China. Examples of this include the AUKUS trade agreement between Australia, the UK and the US and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between Japan, Australia, India and the US. “The Biden administration is as hostile to China as the Trump administration,” says Professor Clark. “China has been throwing its weight around in the region and beyond for the past decade, so the US has become much more skeptical of maintaining mature relations with them.” How have things changed Russia-Ukraine? According to Sky News’ defense and security editor, Deborah Haines, with his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin “broke the rule book in terms of how countries behave”. As a result, security officials fear that Xi Jinping may respond more aggressively to Taiwan in this context. Image: Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the weeks before the invasion of Ukraine “Everyone is looking at the invasion of Ukraine as a possible model for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan,” adds Professor Clarke. “It can create a tolerant environment for Xi in the next year or so. “He may think ‘well the Russians are doing it’ and that the world is looking the other way towards this conflict, and that may offer him some temptation. “But it may also give him pause as he sees how the world has responded to Russia with sanctions — and how difficult the invasion has been for Putin so far.” He also warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have to be launched from the sea – which would be too complicated – even for a major military power like Beijing. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 1:54 China’s military is conducting “live-fire drills” near Taiwan Why did Pelosi go against Biden’s recommendations? When asked by reporters, Joe Biden said a US trip to Taiwan is “not a good idea right now.” But as a longtime foreign policy liberal and critic of China, Ms. Pelosi wanted to travel there to emphasize America’s “determination to preserve democracy in Taiwan” and that it remains “ironclad.” Professor Clarke says: “Pelosi’s argument is that the US has always supported Taiwan – since 1949. “Congress — on the Democratic and Republican sides — is staunchly pro-Taiwan — and just represents it. “He knows it’s a sensitive time, but he says that even as China rumbles about military power, the US needs to show it’s not afraid – because if you show you’re afraid they’ll exploit it mercilessly. “The White House on the other hand has to be slightly more discreet, because it’s the executive.” Taiwan’s independent MP Freddie Lim agreed, telling Sky News it was “hard to appease China” anyway, so it had nothing to lose by strengthening diplomatic ties with its allies. Image: The Speaker of the US House of Representatives with the President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen Minutes for Xi and the Chinese economy The timing of Ms. Pelosi’s visit is also crucial. In the second half of this year, China will hold its 20th Party Congress, in which Xi Jinping will seek an unprecedented third term as leader. Therefore, a Western challenge to Taiwan a few weeks ago will be an “unwelcome” development as it struggles to extend its control over China and the region. “China is in a very delicate position at the moment,” says Professor Clarke. “In regards to Xi’s position in the party and the Chinese economy is starting to suffer from the global slowdown, the zero COVID policy and the real estate market. “This is a short-term issue, but it all comes amid the long-term deterioration of Western relations with China.”
